🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.