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With nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

Although this isn't his best start to a term - he found the net 11 times in his initial seven matches in 2022-23 and double digits last year - it still puts him with a three-goal lead in the opening stages for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this zero of his nine conversions have been penalties makes it all the more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two key factors why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the award so soon in the campaign.

Firstly, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, equally significant, the number and quality of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Furthermore, the modest opening his usual rivals for the honor have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) indicates how many goals a top-flight footballer has historically scored from the number and quality of chances he has had.

It is not a statistic haphazardly selected by statistical experts, but by Premier League history.

When examining at players' xG in the English top division so far this term from regular situations, the Norway forward is receiving significantly more excellent scoring situations to convert than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland were no better at scoring from situations than any other player in the competition, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is shown by breaking down the quantity and caliber of opportunities that players have had in the top flight so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, twelve additional compared to all other attackers.

This is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had actually taken more open-play attempts at this juncture in the previous two campaigns (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the previous term).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the standard of scoring situations he has had this campaign. His shots have had an xG value of an average of 0.27.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the attempts he's taken at a 27% success ratio.

Among footballers attempting at ten or more efforts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to net per shot - thanks to a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been considerably more favorable to score from in a reorganised City team than those at the opening of last term.

Historical Comparison

Starting a season so strongly is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. After seven games last season he had netted ten times - four additional compared to any other player and six more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Anfield star who secured the scoring title with 29 conversions, seven more than the City forward.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this juncture last term.

In fact this has been the quietest start to a Premier League term the Egyptian attacker has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has opened quietly either. When examining at the highest eleven attackers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Be it because of fitness issues - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - protracted transfer stories in a specific forward's circumstances or just due to the fact that their teams have struggled (several proven attackers), Haaland's probable competitors in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Although the Norwegian appears the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European Golden Shoe that is given to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's top-five leagues?

That race is significantly tighter at this opening period because two elite attackers have likewise begun in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The circumstance Haaland has scored so many times and has the greatest expected goals of the trio despite not attempting any penalties positions him as the frontrunner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are some of the most excellent finishers in European football in terms of overperforming their xG, the competition remains open.